Most full-time workers in Scotland are set to be higher-rate taxpayers by 2029 under the SNP’s “brutal” plans, the Scottish Conservatives can reveal.
According to figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the average full-time employee will earn almost £45,000 in four years’ time. That will bring them into the higher income tax bracket if, as expected, the Nationalists continue to freeze thresholds.
John Swinney has already been called out for falsely claiming that most Scots taxpayers pay less than they would in other parts of the UK, when the facts have shown that this was not the case in the previous years.
But unless the SNP change their policy, most Scots in full-time work will not just be paying more, but paying at the higher rate.
Craig Hoy, the shadow finance secretary, said the figures made a mockery of SNP claims that only those with the broadest shoulders paid more under their tax regime.
He added that – in the wake of Rachel Reeves’ recent budget – Scots were being “hammered” by two left-wing governments “addicted to tax rises”.
Scottish Conservative shadow cabinet secretary for finance and local government Craig Hoy said: “These figures lay bare just how brutal the SNP’s tax policy is for ordinary Scots.
“It defies belief that someone on an average salary will soon be dragged into the higher tax bracket.
“John Swinney likes to pretend that only those with the broadest shoulders are made to pay more by the SNP, but these stats expose that claim as utter nonsense.
“It’s not just top earners being clobbered, it’s most people who are working full-time.
“With Labour’s latest UK budget hiking taxes by a further £26 billion, Scots are being hammered by two left-wing governments addicted to tax rises in order to fund their reckless benefits splurge.
“No one can trust a word that either Labour or the SNP say about tax, since both have broken their manifesto promises on the issue – something John Swinney brazenly and inexplicably tries to deny.
“While these relentless tax rises stifle growth and hurt families, the Scottish Conservatives are committed to growing the economy to fund our essential services and bring down people’s bills.”
Notes to editors
The average full-time employee in Scotland will be earning nearly £45,000 by 2029. Full-time workers in Scotland earn an average of £39,719 pounds in 2025 according to an Office for National Statistics survey. When applying the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasted average wage increases, this means that by 2029, the average full-time wage in Scotland will be £44,746.18. (Earnings and hours worked, UK region by public and private sector: ASHE Table 25, 23 October 2025, link; Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2025, 26 November 2025, Table A.1, link).
The SNP Government have accepted they are likely to freeze the higher income tax threshold for the long term. Back in May 2022, the Scottish Fiscal Commission adjusted their fiscal forecast to assume that the higher rate of income tax, which currently kicks in when earning above £43,662, will be frozen in the long run due to the historic trend of keeping this threshold frozen. The SFC reported that the Scottish Government ‘agree that a frozen higher rate threshold is a more reasonable baseline assumption’ going forwards. (Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts May 2022, 31 May 2022, Page 62, link).
This means that by 2029, most full-time workers in Scotland will pay the higher rate of income tax. Using the data from the ONS and OBR, most full-time workers in Scotland will earn above £43,662 by 2029. The Scottish Fiscal Commission estimate this will mean around 874,073 workers paying the higher rate of income tax in Scotland by 2029-30. (Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts May 2025, 29 May 2025, Figure S4.4, link).
Therefore, most full-time Scottish workers will see half of their income taxed when they cross this threshold. The higher rate of Scottish Income Tax currently stands at 42%. The National Insurance rate that employees are obliged to pay between earnings of £12,500 and £50,000 currently stands at 8%. This means for those earning above £43,662 in Scotland, they will have to pay 50% of this money in tax. (Rates and allowances: National Insurance contributions, 6 April 2025, link; Scottish Income Tax 2025 to 2026, 4 December 2024, link).
Calculations
ONS estimate of average full-time Scottish worker salary: £39,719.
The Office for Budget Responsibility estimate 3.7% salary growth in 2026, resulting in the average full-time salary rising to £41,188.60. In 2027, they estimate growth of 2.9% meaning the average salary will increase to £42,383.07. For 2028, average salary growth will hit 2.7%, uplifting the full-time salary to £43,527.42. In 2029, salaries are projected to increase by 2.8%, meaning they will go above the £43,662 threshold and hit £44,746.18.