Scotland will not reach its net zero emissions target until 2080 according to analysis by the Scottish Conservatives of the Climate Change Committee’s report published earlier this week.
Based on the committee’s projected emissions for Scotland in 2024, it suggests it will take Scotland 35 years longer than the SNP’s target year of 2045 to meet their net zero ambitions, at the current rate of emissions reductions.
Shadow net zero and energy secretary Douglas Lumsden says the analysis shows the SNP are miles off meeting their own climate change targets and it will require “eye-watering” costs being imposed on households and “drastic” lifestyle changes in order for the SNP to stay on track for 2045.
Among the most stringent targets laid out in the report include Scots reducing meat consumption by 30 per cent compared to current levels, 60 per cent of cars and vans becoming electric and increasing the installation of expensive heat pumps to 35,000 per year by 2030.
Douglas Lumsden says the findings will alarm hard-pressed households and confirms that his party leader Russell Findlay was right to recently highlight the need for an affordable transition to net zero which prioritises keeping bills low, rather than meeting arbitrary deadlines.
Scottish Conservative Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy Douglas Lumsden, said: “This shocking revelation must act as a wake-up call to SNP ministers who are still hellbent on reaching net zero by 2045.
“The nationalists were already humiliated into dropping previous climate change targets. Their snail’s pace progress in reducing emissions in recent years suggests meeting their 2045 goal is now little more than a pipe dream.
“If the SNP remain wedded to hitting 2045, then this report makes it clear hard-pressed households will suffer eye-watering costs being imposed on them, or there will have to be drastic changes in people’s lifestyles. Those costs are simply not affordable, and ministers must realise lifestyle changes won’t happen overnight.
“The cosy left-wing consensus at Holyrood is happy to see Scotland continue to try and hurtle towards hitting net zero by 2045, no matter the costs on families and businesses.
“They need to wake up and accept reality. The recommendations in the report will alarm households across Scotland, especially if there is any sign of the SNP supporting them.
“The Scottish Conservatives are the only party prioritising an affordable transition to net zero which prioritises keeping bills low over only focusing on meeting arbitrary deadlines.”
Notes
Scotland may not reach net zero until 2080. In 2019, Scotland’s net greenhouse gas emissions stood at 45.8MtCO2e. For 2024, the Climate Change Committee’s baseline projection is that these net emissions fall to 42.1MtCO2e. Using these figures, the annual reduction that has occurred over the last five years is roughly 0.75MtCO2e. Therefore, for Scotland to reduce its current net emissions to zero would take 56 years from 2024 – meaning we would not reach net zero until 2080. (Scotland’s Carbon Budgets, 21 May 2025, Data Table 2.1 link).
The Climate Change Committee report recommends reducing sheep and cattle numbers by more than a third. The Scotland’s Carbon Budgets report that in order to meet net zero by 2045, sheep and cattle numbers would have to fall by 36% compared to 2023. (Scotland’s Carbon Budgets, 21 May 2025, link).
The Climate Change Committee recommends Scots cut their meat consumption by 30%. In order to meet net zero the committee claims that compared to 2019 levels, meat consumption would have to fall by 30%. (Scotland’s Carbon Budgets, 21 May 2025, link).
The Climate Change Committee states that heat pump installations need to increase five-fold in just five years. The committee states that to reach net zero by 2045: ‘Annual heat pump installations in existing homes will need to accelerate rapidly, reaching nearly 35,000 by 2030’. However, between August 2023 and July 2024, only 7,353 heat pumps were installed. Therefore, this would require a fivefold increase in annual installations in the space of just five years. (Heat in buildings: progress report 2024, 10 October 2024, link; Scotland’s Carbon Budgets, 21 May 2025, link).
The Climate Change Committee want 60% of all cars and vans to be electric in just ten years. Despite just 2.2% of cars and 0.8% of vans being electric in 2023, the Climate Change Committee believes that ‘by 2035, around three-fifths of cars and vans on Scottish roads [need to be] fully electric in our pathway’. (Scotland’s Carbon Budgets, 21 May 2025, link).